A Second Step

When we want to change, build, or improve something we often only look one step in. That is, if we take action A we will get result B. End of story.

That’s only the end of the story because we stop looking.

Sometimes we only look that far because of a lack of imagination. Other times incentives are misaligned. Or when change comes at us too quickly. We also often only look one step in because considering more steps is difficult or impossible. The attempt to go beyond those problems is sometimes called “second-order thinking.”

Here are some recent events and proposal that clearly involve more than a single step when it comes to outcomes. Let’s look at ways the first step can result in unintended

COVID-19 brought sudden changes to the way people around many parts of the world work today. One of those changes was that many employees would work remotely from home.

What should be some of the first step changes from temporary remote work? Common ones listed include:

• Employees save on travel time and expense. Less need for a car and associated fuel, parking, and maintenance. Less stress from long commutes.
• Employees have a change in distractions during the work day. A less or more comfortable office.
• Employees have fewer casual interactions (for better or worse) throughout the day.
• Employers furlough employees and cut benefits.
• Employers lose revenue from sales of food, parking, and other services.
• Employers save on amenities, events, office supplies and services.
• Employers (or employees) incur an expense to upgrade the home office to include needed equipment (duplicating what was in the office).

Many employees with jobs that went remote benefited from the new arrangement. Long-term, will their employers claw back some of that benefit even if the employer is net positive from savings on rent, events, and amenities?

Employees may be able to live farther from the office in cheaper, more comfortable settings. Likewise, Employer savings on rent (if office space is downsized).

Some companies, like Buffer, that always had remote work pay employees differently depending on location. But eventually, other companies realize that they can do that too, as Facebook has already announced.

Another impact is that remote work acts as a leveler of sorts. Rather than compete with people in the same location, will employees instead have to compete with potential hires everywhere? A good salary in an American city is a great salary in the American countryside and an amazing salary in most other parts of the world.

In other situations, another effect of remote work is contrary to the above. While those who don’t already have a strong business network or family support can perhaps build those resources in person, can they do it purely online?

We can already see some second-order effects in just a few months of COVID-19.